Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Do you trust an expert?

In some areas like leadership, plastic surgery, and flying a 747 an expert is better than an amateur, but it so happens that stock forecasters are wrong about the market more than darts. This is called the fallacy of expertise in an area where random events takes place like a lot to game an expert cannot predict better thn chance.

Using astral time travel my results are far better than random and I relate it to predicting the weather which although not perfect is useful in telling people what to prepare for an umbrella or sunglasses.

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